Now the Oscar race is picking up steam, contrary to popular belief the winners of Golden Globe Awards are not the best indication for who is going to win at the Oscars (just look at last year’s double victory for Avatar when Hurt Locker won every other award show).
What is more of an indication are the guild awards especially PGA (Producers), SAG (Actors), DGA (Directors) and WGA (Writers).
Today the PGA announced their winners and the winner was….
not the Social Network!
The King’s Speech took home the award, marking the first time the Social Network lost one of the big awards (after collecting most critics and globe awards).
And now the tides may turn a little.
Before I read about this win today I was about to stop believing that The King’s Speech was the runner-up and in the best position to take the honor from The Social Network since until today it only collected the awards for Colin Firth’s performance.
I started to believe that King’s Speech was just the runner-up because it has been predicted to be a main contender long before we even saw the first images – which makes my least favorite Oscar movies to watch: The ones that are already predicted to be winners because there are big names in it (True Grit) which some times just get nominated if they are o.k. movies but nothing outstanding (Frost/Nixon) – it’s easier for one of those anticipated movies to get in than a superb movie that was not out to win any awards (District 9), but I guess that’s the Academy Award policy that leads a lot of people to not take the oscars quite seriously.
Anywho, because of the lack of nominations and Black Swan’s fantastic run (it scored nominations from all guilds and contrary to King’s Speech who’s weak point is the generic story Black Swan doesn’t offer many spots to attack and criticize).
But it seems like the prejudice from before awards season was right: The King’s Speech is now officially the runner up.
Come BAFTA-Awards (BRITISH award ceremony) The King’s Speech will 100% certainly collect the big trophies due to its british production value – this is just an observation, but the fact that Atonement (2007) beat both There Will be Blood and No Country for Old Men you can be certain that it has less to do with quality than with nationality.
So the DGA and SAG will give more indication on the race (since King’s Speech is not allowed for the WGA because their rules for getting nominated are just plain stupid).
So what change in the dynamics can we expect?
Colin Firth will win Best Actor, no matter what, that was clear even before the guild awards starte.
Best Picture and Director can now be taken or it could even lead to a split vote to finally give Fincher the Oscar for Directing, but The King’s Speech might have some pull in the Best Picture Award.
It won’t take the Screenplay from The Social Network since they are nomianted in different categories (Network for adapted, Speech for original screenplay). But since it now seems like the second favorite it has pretty good chances of taking the screenplay award over Inception and Black Swan – yeah kinda sucks, but whatever.
Tuesday the Academy Awards will announce their nominations.
Best Director: Banksy (Exit through the Gift Shop)
Best Actor in a leading role: Thierry Guetta aka Mr. Brainwash
(Exit through the Gift Shop)
Best Supporting Actress: Chloë Moretz (Kick-Ass)
Best Editing: Life Remote Control (by Thierry Guetta)