Tonight’s the night! And it will be a wild and unpredictable night!
Tonight the Oscar goes to….?
As with last year I have sat down with ExistentialCoffee to pin down our votes for the evening. If we agreed on one tip it will be listed as our prediction Will Win whereas different colors for Flipthetruck and ExistentialCoffee will. Should have been there and Should Win categories are added for fun whereas Could Win categories mark the one’s which might take home the gold.
Please note that I am notoriously bad at predictions and while this article might sound very confident (and probably full of itself/pretentious) I am taking a stab in the dark many times (director, supporting actor, original screenplay mainly) – the percentage at the side is just how sure we feel about this guess so don’t take them as laws of nature. This year has been a crazy race especially due to the omission of Ben Affleck and it will be a fun evening, I am sure.
If you are interested in continuous self-indulgent whining by flipthetruck you can follow my reactions on twitter.
So, it is only a few hours before the show begins and I am ready!
Will Win: Argo (100%)
Should have been there: Skyfall
Will Win: Emanuelle Riva – Amour (50%)
Could Win: Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
Will Win: Daniel Day Lewis – Lincoln (100% – no discussion)
Will Win: Ang Lee – Life of Pi (30%), Michael Haneke – Amour (30%)
Should have been there: BEN AFFLECK!
This category is just crazy and super interesting and our tips are merely very standard guesses. It would be no surprise if Spielberg took home his third statue or if O. Russell got the Oscar (just look at the nominations for Silver Linings Playbook). The absence of Ben Affleck has turned this category into one of the most unpredictable categories of the year.
Best supporting actor
Will Win: Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained (20%)
Should Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master
Should not have been there: Christoph Waltz
Should have been there instead: Samuel L. Jackson – Django Unchained,
Javier Bardem – Skyfall, Michael Caine – The Dark Knight Rises
After the best director this category is the other complete wildcard. Aside from Hoffman the performances are decent but never really big enough to sweep you away. Be it because they are just solid supporting roles (Jones and Arkin), repeating the same thing that won an Oscar the previous time (Waltz) or finally acting again instead of cashing the checks (De Niro).
While it would be pretty crazy for Waltz to win two Oscars with two nominations and therefore join the ranks of Sean Penn, De Niro and many more great actors he is the supporting actor that constantly gets the coverage. And while there might be other Lincoln or Silver Linings camps Waltz has been steady (minus a Screenactors Guild nomination which could be due to Django’s late release).
So even though I am not a fan of the movie or the performance my gut tells me Waltz… but it is a 20% chance if you have 5 candidates.
Best supporting actress
Will Win: Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables (100%)
Best foreign film
Will Win: Amour (99%)
Why not 100%? Remember The White Ribbon, Waltz With Bashir and Entres les Murs – all not winning?
Yeah this category always has a surprise in store but with 5 nominations Amour should do it.
Should have been there: Intouchables (even though it was released last year in France)
Best animated film
Will Win: Wreck-it Ralph (50%), Brave (50%)
Should Win: Paranorman
Best documentary film
Will Win: Searching For Sugarman (70%)
Haven’t seen the others but Sugarman has had constant awards buzz
Music (original song)
Will Win: Skyfall (Skyfall) – Music and Lyric by Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth (90%)
Should really really not win: Suddenly (Les Miserables) – Music by Claude-Michel Schonberg,
Lyric by Herbert Kretzmer and Alain Boublil
Music (original score)
Life Of Pi – Mychael Danna (75%)
Going with the popular choice here
Should have been there: The Dark Knight Rises – Hans Zimmer
Argo – Chris Terrio (80%)
A fantastic screenplay for a fantastic film!
Will Win: Django Unchained – Quentin Tarantino, Amour – Michael Haneke
Should Win: Moonrise Kingdom – Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola
Will Win: Life of Pi – Claudio Miranda (80%)
Should Win: Skyfall – Roger Deakins (like seriously should win!)
Should have been there: The Dark Knight Rises – Wally Pfister
Will Win: Anna Karenina – Jacqueline Durran (80%)
Keira Knightley is wearing something Victorian!
Could Win: Les Miserables – Paco Delgado
Should have been there: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Best documentary short subject
complete stab in the dark: Open Heart (20%)
Will Win: Argo – William Goldenberg (90%)
Make-up and Hairstyling
Will Win: Les Miserables – Lisa Westcott and Julie Dartnell (100%)
Should have been there: Cloud Atlas
Will Win: Les Miserables – Eve Stewart and Anna Lynch-Robinson (75%)
Could Win: Anna Karenina – Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer
Short film (animated)
Will Win: Paperman (100%)
A lot of buzz for this short!
Short film (live action)
Stab in the dark: Curfew (20%)
Will Win: Life Of Pi – Eugene Gearty and Philip Stockton (90%)
Should Win: Skyfall – Per Hallberg and Karen Baker Landers
Will Win: Les Miserables – Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson and Simon Hayes (100%)
Should Win: Skyfall – Scott Millan, Greg P Russell and Stuart Wilson
Will Win: Life Of Pi
Should have been there: The Dark Knight Rises, Cloud Atlas
So bottom line:
- 3 Oscars for Argo (Editing, Picture, Adapted Screenplay)
- 4 for Les Misérables (Supporting Actress, Make-Up, Production Design, Sound Mixing)
- 2 or 4 wins for Amour (Actress, Foreign Language Film, Director, Original Screenplay)
- 4 or 5 for Life of Pi (Cinematography, Score, Sound Editing, Visual Effects, Director)
- 1 or 2 for Django Unchained (Original Screenplay, Supporting Actor)
- 1 for Lincoln (Best Daniel Day-Lewis)
- No love for Silver Linings Playbook (makes me suspicious that we might be completely wrong)